Are we there yet?

I had the good fortune to attend a recent presentation by Gavin Hegney, a local property expert, you have probably heard him on 720 radio.

Consider Gavin's opening words, "recovery usually happens when we don't feel it". Makes sense, if we look at the share market, it is up 50% since the GFC and yet sentiment is still weak.

Gavin is reasonably upbeat about the property market future, he suggests fundamentals are improving in WA, whilst sentiment is lagging behind.

Fundamentals such as rental vacancies, population growth and employment are suggesting positive outlook. Gavin shared how in the last cycle eastern states money was a big reason for the WA property growth and he predicts this will happen again as WA is starting to look more affordable, with strong fundamentals. Interesting at the crest of the WA slump, WA was the least affordable in Australia, now we are the most affordable again.

In the meantime WA remains slow, Gavin suggested the number of listings is artificially high, he proposes that 10-20% of these are subject to sale and will soon come off the market. He also believes 2 in 3 properties are overpriced and this correction will come either as reduced prices or removed from the market.

So are we there yet? According to Gavin we are in for a 3-4 year recovery phase which will see modest growth at around 4-5%.

As for tips of where to buy, consider this "8 in 10 people are looking for a home", his lesson is buy where people want to live, can't argue with that.